8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Apr 2005

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 31/05/2005

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Main Features
About this Release

APRIL KEY FIGURES

		Apr 05	Mar 05 to Apr 05
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	16,832.0	0.2
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	16,759.5	-0.5

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimates, percentage change

APRIL KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.2% in April 2005. This follows a revised increase of 0.2% in both March and February 2005.
In April 2005, there was an increase in the trend estimate in the Northern Territory (+0.6%), Queensland (+0.5%), Western Australia (+0.4%) and Victoria (+0.2%). New South Wales and Tasmania had no change.
Over the three months to April 2005 the trend estimate increased by $94m. Food retailing (+$86m) and Household good retailing (+$18m) had the largest increases, while Department stores (-$21m) and Other retailing (-$21m) decreased.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series decreased by 0.5% in April 2005. This followed no change in March 2005 and an increase of 0.6% in February 2005. Department stores fell by 11.3%, which more than accounted for the fall in total turnover.
All states except Western Australia (+2.0%), Victoria (+0.3%) and the Australian Capital Territory (no change) had a decrease in their seasonally adjusted estimates. South Australia (-2.7%) and New South Wales (-1.5%) had the largest decreases.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover decreased by 1.6% in April 2005 compared with March 2005. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) decreased by 3.7%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) increased by 1.2%.
Australian turnover increased by 2.4% in April 2005 compared with April 2004. Chains and other large retailers increased by 3.6%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 0.8%.

NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for April 2005 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	16,150.8	129.2
Change from preceding month ($m)	-269.0	96.7
% change from preceding month (%)	-1.6	0.6

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraph 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

There has been weak growth in the trend for five months. In March 2005, all industries except Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing and Other retailing had an increase in the trend estimate.

FOOD RETAILING

After three months of weak trend growth there has been moderate growth for two months. All states have had an increase in the trend estimate for at least two months. Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory had moderate trend growth in April 2005.

DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for three months. All published states except Western Australia, which has had two months of weak trend growth, have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least two months.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There was no change in the trend in April 2005. Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania have had strong growth for four, three and four months respectively. All other states, except the Northern Territory, have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least one month with South Australia having been in decline for nine months.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

Growth in the trend has been slowing since October 2004 with weak growth for the last two months. There has been weak growth in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania for two, five and one month respectively. Western Australia and the Northern Territory have had at least six months of moderate to strong growth while Queensland, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least three months.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate or strong growth for six months. All states, except New South Wales and South Australia which both had a decline in the trend estimate, had strong growth for April 2005. Queensland and Western Australia have had at least six months of strong growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

The trend series has been in decline for seven months. All published states, except New South Wales and Victoria, have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least four months. After 14 months of being in decline, New South Wales has had weak growth for four months. Victoria had no change in the trend estimate in April 2005 after six months of being in decline.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had weak growth for five months. Over the last four months, the rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been the same as Total all industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

After the trend estimate decreasing for eight months, there has been weak trend growth for two months. New South Wales, Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory have had a decline in the trend estimate for nine, six and six months respectively while Queensland and the Northern Territory have had four and 12 months of strong growth respectively.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

After five months of weak trend growth, there was no change in April 2005. There has been weak growth in Food retailing, Household good retailing and Other retailing for six, two and four months respectively. All other industries have had a decline in the trend estimate for one or more months, with Hospitality and services being in decline for nine months.

VICTORIA

There has been weak trend growth for four months. Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing and Hospitality and services have had a decline in the trend estimate for two, two and six months respectively. Recreational good retailing has had two months of strong growth and Food retailing has had four months of moderate growth.

QUEENSLAND

There has been moderate growth in the trend for three months. Clothing and soft good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services have had strong growth for at least four months. There has been a decline in the trend estimate for Department stores, Household good retailing and Other retailing for at least five months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for two months. All industries, except Food retailing and Hospitality and services, have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least three months with Clothing and soft good retailing having had a decline for nine months.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

After three months of weak trend growth, there was moderate growth in April 2005. Food retailing, Clothing and soft good retailing, Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had moderate to strong growth for one, four, over 15 and 11 months respectively. Department stores and Hospitality and services had at least two months of weak growth while Other retailing has had a decline in the trend estimate for five months.

TASMANIA

After two months of weak growth, there was no change in April 2005. Food retailing and Household good retailing had weak growth for April 2004, Hospitality and services had flat growth and Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing had strong growth.